When discussing the most expensive skins in CS2, many people think of knives with rare patterns or items that remain limited in number on the market, such as the AWP Dragon Lore or the M4A4 Howl. But recently the list of incredibly expensive ones has been extended by another truly unique one: we are talking about a unique AK-47 Case Hardened variety with a pattern index of 661. It first appeared on one of the trading platforms in mid-January 2024, and its value can reach 1 million dollars.
Probability of getting
The AK-47 Case Hardened skin was added to the game back in 2013. The pattern index affects its coloring, which means there are a thousand possible variations. It turns out that the probability of dropping a particular type of skin is 1 in 21 million:
- According to skin drop probabilities, the chance of getting an AK-47 Case Hardened is 1.585%.
- With a probability of 10%, it can have a StatTrak counter.
- Since there are only a thousand pattern indexes, the probability of getting one of them is 0.1%.
- A possible float range of 0 to 1.00 gives a 3% chance of having the skin as «Straight from the factory».
Taking into account all these probabilities, we get that the chance to get a new AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) with StatTrak counter and in perfect quality is 0.000004755% It is not surprising that for the entire existence of the game such a skin until 2024 has not fallen out once, given that there are not very many copies of CS:GO Weapon Case on the market.
However, it is not known exactly how the owner of the rare skin got it
.
This may not have come about as a result of opening a case, but rather through a Trade-Up contract. However, even then, the probability is low and the exchange will require a substantial investment. By selecting the right initial skins, you can guarantee the presence of StatTrak counter and float value, but it is still a matter of chance.Cost of AK-47 Case Hardened
Although many collectors have already announced their estimates, according to which this skin can cost up to one million dollars, the real price will depend on the state of the market. Unique skins, which exist in a single copy, are similar in this sense to famous works of art: they are worth exactly as much as collectors will be willing to pay for them. AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) is valued due to the unique distribution of colored texture areas on the case, and the cost of this copy will increase the quality «Straight from the factory» and the presence of a kill counter.
Making some assumptions can be based on information about past transactions with similar skins. For example, a couple years ago an AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) as «A slightly worn» with four rare stickers sold for half a million. And the owner of a Karambit Case Hardened Blue Gem knife as «Direct from the factory» once refused an offer to sell it for a million, meaning that such a price order is possible in principle. Whether the owner of the new unique «kalashnikov» will want to sell it and how much money he will be able to get, we may find out in the near future.
